Data and code for FiveThirtyEight's NFL game. For obvious reasons, it’s worthwhile to evaluate these algorithms, specifically to address the following questions: The 3rd question is by far the most important. The slope is about right for RAPTOR (1.005) and a little too steep for ELO (1.064). The Elo … Press J to jump to the feed. RAPTOR likewise values these things — not because we made any deliberate attempt to design the system that way but because the importance of those skills emerges naturally from the data. Classically, Elo is a rating system that only uses win and losses to measure performance. The R-squared was slightly higher for RAPTOR (0.193 vs. 0.182), suggesting RAPTOR is slightly more prognostic. Do they provide prognostic value beyond the Vegas spread? Each row includes a elo_prob1 field, which is the probability that team1will win the game according to the Elo model. Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets: mlb_elo: MLB Elo: nba_all_elo: The Complete History Of The NBA : nba_carmelo: The Complete History Of The NBA 2017-18 NBA Predictions: nba_elo: NBA Elo Ratings: nfl_elo: The Complete History Of The NFL 2017 NFL Predictions: quasi_winshares: The Twins’ Magical Run Will Likely Go Through The Yankees. Log in sign up. 2020 NFL Predictions For the regular season and playoffs, updated after every game. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. It highly values two-way wings such as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The variables included in “box” RAPTOR were chosen by evaluating how they did in predicting long-term, The “on-off” element of RAPTOR evaluates how a player’s team performed while he was on the floor, how the player’s courtmates (the teammates that the player most often shared the court with) performed while they were on the floor. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. FiveThirtyEight's soccer predictions calculate each team's chances of winning each match and the league title across 39 leagues. Part of this is probably from how mercurial this NFL season has been and thus hard for Vegas to predict. Introducing RAPTOR, Our New Metric For The Modern NBA. We’ve got two sets of predictions here, generated by perhaps the most well-known statistician in the world. Last Time They Played. Can someone explain why 538's RAPTOR predictions (2%) and ELO predictions (20%) for us winning the finals are so different? Contribute to fivethirtyeight/nfl-elo-game development by creating an account on GitHub. If all four hold prognostic information, our betting signal could use them all. We also have a historical version of RAPTOR called Approximate RAPTOR dating back to 1976-1977, the first season after the ABA-NBA merger, but that uses a far more limited range of data. Namely, these statistics assume that player performance is largely linear and additive, that is, that you can roughly add up the ratings from individual players to project team performance. 1.8k. GitHub data at data/nba-raptor. Let’s look at the correlations among our four candidate predictors and response variable: On the last point, it seems that FiveThirtyEight uses a very simple method to map point spreads to win probabilities: Based on this, I’m comfortable completely dropping the win probability variables from subsequent analyses. We’re pretty excited about it. The home team only actually won 54.8% of the time. Player Stats. Actually, two sets of predictions: “RAPTOR” and “ELO”. RAPTOR, which stands for Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings, is FiveThirtyEight’s new NBA statistic. WNBA-stats. Here is an executive summary. 2. FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. For each game, they publish a point spread and win probability based on each algorithm. Initially, every competitor is assigned an initial rating (538 NBA uses 1300). Powered by FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR player ratings. Motivation. The mean residual was -1.51 for RAPTOR and -1.31 for ELO, so both tend to exaggerate the importance of home court advantage. For more detail on past RAPTORs, including the breakdown of box and on-off components, you can download files that list the regular season and playoffs separately, or a version that combines a player’s appearances over the course of the entire season5 into one file. The Best Players by WAR Not in the Baseball Hall of Fame, The Comfort of Watching Sports in the Era of Trump, David Price Changed One Pitch, and Now He’s a Postseason Star. The next step is to test whether either algorithm is prognostic beyond the casino’s point spread. As for our response variable, it depends on what type of bet we ultimately want to make. Second, and relatedly, we wanted a statistic that better reflects how modern NBA teams actually evaluate players. The motivation for creating this package is articulated in The fivethirtyeight R Package: “Tame Data” Principles for Introductory Statistics and Data Science Courses by Kim, Ismay, and Chunn (2018) published in Volume 11, Issue 1 of the journal “Technology Innovations in Statistics Education”. FiveThirtyEight's player-based forecasting model RAPTOR gives the Raptors a 65 percent chance of winning this game. NBA Predictions (13) FiveThirtyEight’s Elo performed the best, with a Brier of 0.16 (closer to 0 is better) and so it received 9 points. Overall, however, RAPTOR weights the “box” component more highly than the “on-off” component. It would be their first AFC East crown since 1995. CARMELO (52) Either way, my prediction would certainly be correlated with the eventual result, but it wouldn’t make me rich because it wouldn’t be additionally prognostic beyond the casino’s spread. A dataframe with 20492 rows representing every player broken out by season and era and 22 variables: Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. 1.8k. @natesilver538, NBA (912 posts) The home court issue is interesting. at How do you rate an NBA team across decades of play? So, we’re down to two candidate variables: the RAPTOR spread and ELO spread. We’d use ‘Away Win’ if we’re ultimately interested in moneyline bets, and ‘Result’ if we’re interested in betting on the spread. Either could work, but I’m partial to the latter, as I think having all potential bets close to 50/50 is preferable. One method is Elo, a simple measure of strength based on game-by-game results. This article will go over some of the highlights of how RAPTOR works. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! RAPTOR's top five players, four ways. FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Miami Heat a 72% chance of winning the NBA Finals over the LA Lakers. Total RAPTOR. By default, these are filled in using the exact same Elo model. raptor_by_player: NBA Raptor: raptor… The Best NFL Teams Of All Time, According To Elo By Neil Paine. RAPTOR WAR. © 2020 ABC News Internet Ventures. FiveThirtyEight publishes predictions for every NBA game. FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Miami Heat a … RAPTOR ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes played, regular season and playoffs combined. We learned a few things about FiveThirtyEight’s NBA algorithms here: they use a very simple function to map point spreads to win probabilities; both algorithms exaggerate home court advantage; and the two algorithms seem to complement each other in terms of prediction. Per the analytics folks, the Bills still have a 75 percent chance of winning the division currently. FiveThirtyEight's 2020 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. nba basketball fivethirtyeight raptor basketball-stats nba-data nba-database Updated Mar 12, 2020 simonw / fivethirtyeight-datasette This repo contains player advanced stats and Elo ratings for WNBA history. All rights reserved. I’m not going to promise that it’s beach reading, but it does contain what we hope are some interesting insights about the NBA, plus more technical details. Reads in the CSV of historical games. In other words, RAPTOR does not account for coaching, systems or synergies between teammates. They predict the opposite outcome in 3/6 games. If neither is, they’re essentially worthless. The R-squared is 0.210, which is modestly higher than the single-algorithm models (0.193 and 0.182). Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. Close. Contribute to fivethirtyeightdata/fivethirtyeightdata development by creating an account on GitHub. Like BPM and RPM, RAPTOR is a plus-minus statistic that measures the number of points a player contributes to his team’s offense and defense per 100 possessions, relative to a league-average player. 2019-20 NBA Predictions. Actually, two sets of predictions: “RAPTOR” and “ELO”. They’re redundant with the point spreads, and I much prefer using the spreads, as they’re on the same scale as the response variable. We’ll see! Partisanship is determined by who sponsors the poll, rather than who conducts it. We calculated Elo ratings for every NBA (and ABA) franchise after every game in history over 60,000 ratings in total. Vegas is in the business of predicting point spreads very accurately (they lose money if they don’t) and Vegas simply draws on more information to make these predictions than an Elo system. More NBA:2019-20 RAPTOR player ratings Our preseason player … There’s actually quite a lot of disagreement between the algorithms here. Date: Nov. 2, 2019. In order to make money in sports betting, you need a truly prognostic betting signal, conditional on the casino’s prediction. Fills in a my_prob1 field for every game using code in forecast.py. * Polls marked with an asterisk are partisan polls. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. I could achieve that myself, say by picking the team with the better record to win by 5 points in every game, or even just picking the home team to win by 1 point. (Because Of Course.) Also, thanks to Ryan Davis, Steve Ilardi, Ben Taylor, Seth Partnow, Charles Rolph and Evan Wasch for their advice and assistance on RAPTOR. We’ll have more ways for readers to see and use RAPTOR soon. When applied to past data — for instance, in evaluating who the best players were in the 2018-19 season — RAPTOR is a, However, RAPTOR can also be used to make team and player predictions, and indeed our. The Details. UPDATED Oct. 11, 2020, at 10:05 PM. It turns out that RAPTOR and ELO picked the home team to win in 69.1% and 70.5% of games, respectively. RAPTOR ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes played4 in a season since 2013-14 can be found in the table below. Standard deviations were 12.7 for RAPTOR and 12.8 for ELO, so similar precision. FiveThirtyEight has been predicting NBA games for a few years now, based on a variant of Elo ratings, which in turn have roots in ranking chess players. Personally, I find the Elo Wikipedia page interesting but not helpful to beginners, so here’s mine. Likewise, a player with a defensive RAPTOR of +3.4 would improve his team’s defensive performance. 5:10 PM, Get the data on GitHub Raptors: Kyle Lowry - 36 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 block. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA predictions have gone through quite an evolution over the years. correctly predicted had an edge over the Golden State Warriors, didn’t fully believe the projection ourselves at the time, What The COVID-19 Vaccine Means For The Political Battles To Come. Podcast: Nate Silver On The Power Of Elo. RAPTOR, which stands for Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings, is FiveThirtyEight’s new NBA statistic.We’re pretty excited about it. On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight publishes their predictions for the entire 2019–2020 season to date, which gives me a little over 3 months of data for addressing questions (1) and (2). We tested and tweaked the prediction model over the years, but it was always powered by metrics from other sources, such as Box Plus/Minus (BPM) and Real Plus-Minus (RPM). More NFL:Every team’s Elo history. J… Filed under Football. It can have a love-hate relationship with centers, who are sometimes overvalued in other statistical systems. Introducing RAPTOR, Our New Metric For The Modern NBA Our scientists … Re: 538 Elo forecast gives Raptors highest chance of winning finals (31%) Post #35 » by Harcore Fenton Mun » Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:49 am Really, I hate these things. 5, 2015. But these are the highlights: The full-fledged version of RAPTOR is available for the 2013-14 season onward, as that’s when the NBA’s player-tracking data came on line. Ideally, the distribution of residuals should be centered at 0 (accurate) and as narrow as possible (precise). Updated after every game and depth chart revision. 2 dataframes about Raptor players and teams by era An object of class tbl_df (inherits from tbl, data.frame) with 32055 rows and 24 columns.. raptor_by_player. mayweather_mcgregor_tweets: Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets; mlb_elo: MLB Elo; nba_all_elo: The Complete History Of The NBA; nba_carmelo: The Complete History Of The NBA 2017-18 NBA Predictions; nba_elo: NBA Elo Ratings; nba_raptor: NBA Raptor; nfl_elo: The … More NBA:Player projections Our 2019-20 NBA predictions. But for now, we’re excited to get your feedback, start the season, and put our metric to the test. The site's Elo forecast gives the Raptors a 56 percent chance of winning. 3. CARM-Elo (2). eval.pyis the only runnable script, and does the following: 1. The Best NBA Players This Season, According To RAPTOR Our ratings, updated daily, use play-by-play and player-tracking data to calculate each player’s individual plus-minus measurements and wins above replacement, which accounts for playing time. My dataset consists of 679 NBA games played between Oct. 22, 2019, and Jan. 24, 2020. Finally, we can use multivariable analysis to see whether the two algorithms provide complementary prognostic information. The passer gets more credit for an assisted dunk than an assisted midrange jumper, for instance. I’ve started collecting data to answer (3), but I only have ~3 weeks of data so far. We saw earlier that the correlation between RAPTOR and ELO spread was 0.79. Do they provide complementary prognostic value? Why Are Some People Hesitant To Trust A COVID-19 Vaccine? At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve been running NBA predictions since 2015. The residual for each game is simply the actual point spread minus the predicted point spread. Thus, the current version of the Raptors is associated with an Elo rating that would peg them not as a 58-win team, but somewhere in the mid-60s instead. As you can see, RAPTOR generally loves perimeter players and wings, such as Curry, Harden, Leonard and Chris Paul, although some frontcourt players like Jokic, Anthony Davis and Draymond Green are also rated highly by the system. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Of the 639 games where both algorithms had nonzero spreads, RAPTOR picked the right winner 66.4% of the time, and ELO 67.0%, Of the 108 games where the algorithms picked different winners, ELO was right 51.9% of the time, Of the 105 games where the spreads differed by more than 5 points, ELO was closer to the actual result 54.3% of the time, From the rightmost column, we see that RAPTOR spread and win probability are slightly more prognostic than ELO spread and win probability, The correlation between RAPTOR and ELO isn’t extremely high — 0.790 for point spread, 0.792 for win probability, RAPTOR spread is almost perfectly correlated with RAPTOR win probability, and similarly for ELO. Here’s what it looks like: There are four candidate betting signals: We don’t have to pick just one. FiveThirtyEight Raptor Playoff Forecast. Especially on 2-pointers; the current data for nearest defender on 3-point attempts is not very reliable or predictive. I describe RAPTOR in more detail in the methodology post. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. The file wnba-player-stats.csv contains season-level advanced stats for WNBA players by team for the 1997-2019 seasons, from Basketball-Reference.com.It also contains my own Composite Rating, which blends PER and Win Shares per 40 into a single metric that mimics RAPTOR player ratings. Edit 2: According to the RAPTORS player rating. RAPTOR thinks ball-dominant players such as James Harden and Steph Curry are phenomenally good. But it appreciates modern centers such as Nikola Jokić and Joel Embiid, as well as defensive stalwarts like Rudy Gobert. Jazz. No obvious difference visually here, in my mind. For instance, a player with an offensive RAPTOR rating of +2.1 boosts his team’s performance by 2.1 points per 100 offensive possessions while he is on the floor. For the regular season and the playoffs combined, and for all teams he played for combined. We started with Elo ratings before introducing our CARMELO player projection system, which we then incorporated into our “CARM-Elo” season prediction model. Sep. 18, 2015. Barcelona vs… Some evidence for independent prognostic value. What NFL Quarterback Would You Want for the Next 5 Years? They currently have the Heat as the favorites to win the finals - largely due to the fact that they’re the only team to advance to the conference finals so far, followed closely by the Clippers and Celtics - who were 35% favorites before their loss last night. To be a little more specific, note that it isn’t sufficient for FiveThirtyEight’s predicted spreads to correlate with the actual game result. Evaluates the probabilities stored in my_prob1 against the ones in elo_prob1, and shows how those forecasts would have done in our game for every season since 1920. Standings Games Quarterbacks. RAPTOR (26) Posted by. In testing RAPTOR on out-of-sample data, we found that while on-court/off-court stats provide useful information, they’re nonetheless quite noisy as compared with individual measures of player value that are used in the “box” part of RAPTOR. Oct. 10, 2019, Format. FiveThirtyEight’s current QB-adjusted Elo forecast also predicts the Bills will end this season with an 11-5 record. 20 days ago. To this end we created the fivethirtyeight R package of data and code behind the stories and interactives at the data journalism website FiveThirtyEight.com. mayweather_mcgregor_tweets: Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets; mlb_elo: MLB Elo; nba_all_elo: The Complete History Of The NBA; nba_carmelo: The Complete History Of The NBA 2017-18 NBA Predictions; nba_elo: NBA Elo Ratings; nba_raptor: NBA Raptor; nfl_elo: The … But the big question remains with the higher goal, the AFC East title. Score: Bucks 115, Raptors 105. User account menu. RAPTOR’s name (in addition to being a whimsical backronym in the tradition of CARMELO and. Has anyone else checked out the playoff forecast over at FiveThirtyEight? But that changes this year. In both tests FiveThirtyEight’s Elo model does a lot better than I expected. Let’s look at the prognostic value of each algorithm separately: The tendency for FiveThirtyEight to overweight home court advantage is clear here, as the y-intercept is negative for both algorithms. Plus-minus statistics have certain inherent limitations, and RAPTOR is subject to those, too. Higher ratings are taken to mean better te… For each game, they publish a point spread and win probability based on each… The Federal Government Wasn’t Tracking COVID-19 Cases In Schools, So Emily Oster Decided To Do It Herself, Trump Hasn’t Pardoned Many People -- But So Far They Have Been Mostly His Friends, First, we wanted to create a publicly available statistic that takes advantage of modern NBA data, specifically. Both spreads are highly significant predictors, meaning they offer complementary (non-redundant) prognostic information. For a much deeper and more technical description, you can find our methodological explainer here. There are other player-tracking statistics we believe could be highly helpful to RAPTOR, especially more detailed measures of on-ball defense, so we hope to be able to revisit RAPTOR as additional data becomes available. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. With 679 data points, I think it’s perfectly reasonable to include both in the same linear regression model. RAPTOR is based exclusively on publicly available data. UPDATED Dec. 13, 2020, at 10:13 AM. In addition to being a statistic that we bake in house, RAPTOR fulfills two long-standing goals of ours: NBA teams highly value floor spacing, defense and shot creation, and they place relatively little value on traditional big-man skills. FiveThirtyEight publishes predictions for every NBA game. Jun. RAPTOR consists of two major components that are blended together to rate players: a “box” (as in “box score”) component, which uses individual statistics (including statistics derived from player tracking and play-by-play data), and an “on-off” component, which evaluates a team’s performance when the player and various combinations of his teammates are on or off the floor. That is, reduce how many points the opposing team scores; positive defensive ratings are good in RAPTOR and negative ones are bad. Data to answer ( 3 ), suggesting RAPTOR is slightly more prognostic the tradition of and. Publish a point spread and Elo spread s defensive performance 1.005 ) and a little steep. 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